|Making learning and work count
Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute
16 November 2016
Learning and Work Institute comment
|Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO)
The latest unemployment figure is 1,604,000. It has fallen by 52,000 from the figure published last month. On the basis of later claimant count figures, Learning and Work Institute estimates that unemployment may rise, although this remains highly uncertain. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.8%.
|Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance or Universal Credit
The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance or Universal Credit has fallen to 50.9%; (816,000).
The number and proportion of unemployed people not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance had risen since the new Jobseeker’s Allowance sanctions regime started in October 2012. The proportion remains at a historically high level.
|Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24)
Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has fallen by 7,000 from last month’s figure and is now 168,000.
The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 28,900. The count fell by 1,300 this month. Work Programme participants are included within the count unless they are in paid work. Youth benefit claimants are very likely to be Universal Credit claimants rather than JSA.
|Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+)
Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 332,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 151,600.
|Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age
The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 11.7% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 3.7%. For those aged 50 and over it is 3.1%. The quarterly change is down 0.1 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, no change for 25 to 49 year olds, and no change for the over-50s.
|Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training
The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (1,022,000) has risen in the past quarter by 1,000 , or 0.1%. The rise was largely among the inactive, with the number of unemployed young people not in full-time education or training now below 400,000 and the lowest since 2001.
|Chart 7: Youth unemployment
The number of unemployed young people has fallen by 34,000 since last month’s figures, to 591,000.
Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose last month by 6,501, to 181,197. There are 224,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance, 56.6% of all unemployed young people who are not students.
|Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimant count
The Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count rose by 9,800 in October, taking the total to 803,300. In September , the number of lone parents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance was 67,675. 12.1% of JSA claimants and 8.9% of the JSA/UC claimant count. Lone parents with a youngest child aged five or over can only claim Jobseeker’s Allowance, unless they have other reasons for claiming benefit.
|Chart 9: Jobseeker’s Allowance – new claims and leavers
The number of new (legacy) Jobseeker’s Allowance claims rose by 600 this month, to 99,500. Meanwhile the number of leavers fell, by 600, to 109,500.
|Chart 10: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimant count leavers rate – leavers as percentage of ‘could leave’
Learning and Work Institute estimates that the ‘leavers rate’ – people who have left the claimant count as a proportion of those who could leave it – has risen to 16.8%.
|Chart 11: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimants staying through each three-month threshold (seasonally adjusted)
These measures show a fall in off-flow (rise in retention) for the shortest term claimants coupled with increases in off-flows for some of those claiming 6-12 months.
The proportion staying beyond three months has risen to 45.8%. Short-term claimants are mainly supported by Jobcentre Plus, although some will be Work Programme participants who have not sustained jobs.
|Chart 12: Jobseeker’s Allowance – proportion of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed
The proportion of starters becoming 12-month claimants is now 9.6%. This is likely to rise over the next few months as the proportion of starters becoming 9-month claimants has risen by 1.7 percentage points over the last three months.
These figures are based on those in Chart 11, but show the patterns of the same people passing through successive quarterly thresholds.
|Chart 13: Vacancies – whole economy survey
Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) rose this month, to 757,000. As the number of vacancies is quite volatile, and frequently revised, the Office for National Statistics uses a three-month average.
|Chart 14: Unemployed people per vacancy
There are 2.1 unemployed people per vacancy. Learning and Work Institute estimates this figure may rise slightly next month (if unemployment follows the claimant count upwards).
|Chart 15: UK employment
Employment fell by 12,000 on the figure published last month, to 31,799,000.
|Chart 16: Employment rate in the UK
The employment rate showed no change over the quarter, at 74.5%. The change in the chart is within the rounding to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.
|Chart 17: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits
The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness fell, as did the benefit figure. The fall in the benefit figures shows ‘early estimates’ of benefit numbers.
This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness.
|Chart 18: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents
The survey figures (showing those looking after family) rose while benefit measures fell more sharply.
Income Support estimates have decreased, and those for Jobseeker’s Allowance are now falling. Lone parents with a youngest child aged five or six have moved on to Jobseeker’s Allowance as part of welfare reform.
This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families).
|Chart 19: Employment rate quarterly change in regions – July to September 2016
This quarter, 5 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by the West Midlands and Northern Ireland. The employment rate fell in 7 regions, led by the East of England and the South West.
|Chart 20: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions – July to September 2016
8 regions showed an improvement in the unemployment rate this quarter. 4 showed a worsening. The rises were led by the East of England and the North East.
|Chart 21: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions – July to September 2016
Overall, there was a 0.1 percentage point rise in the inactivity rate. 8 regions showed rises in inactivity, led by the North East and Scotland.
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